assesment of economic projects in uncertain conditions (fuzzy approach)

نویسندگان

عبدالرسول قاسمی

استادیار دانشکده‎ی اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی سهیل محمودزاده

چکیده

the certainty assumption that is used in economic analysis, althouth is easier in analysis, may be but not logical because in most projects time is playing a key role. in this time horizon the amount of income and future costs affecting by factors that are not managable by investors and can not to be forecasted. therefore in practice usually there is a gap between forecased and real variables. in risk and uncertainty condition the results of economic analysis could be altered by a few changes in uncertain parameter. in this paper, the formulas for the analyses of fuzzy present value, fuzzy equivalent uniform annual value and fuzzy benefit–cost ratio are developed given some numeric examples. this paper one of the few researches which used a model for economic evaluation of projects with fuzzy logic. jel classification: co2, c61

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Economic optimization of solar systems in uncertain economic conditions using the Monte Carlo method

Solar energy is an environmentally sustainable energy source as it is clean and inexhaustible. Solar systems are very common and cost-effective, thus, can be used for many home applications. In this paper, a new method is presented to optimize solar systems economically, regarding to energy cost fluctuations. In spite of conventional analyses, in which the inflation is considered constant, ...

متن کامل

Equitable Risk Allocation in Construction Projects: Fuzzy Bargaining Game Approach

An equitable risk allocation between contracting parties plays a vital role in enhancing the performance of the project. This research presents a new quantitative risk allocation approach by integrating fuzzy logic and bargaining game theory. Owing to the imprecise and uncertain nature of players’ payoffs at different risk allocation strategies, fuzzy logic is implemented to determine the value...

متن کامل

Economic Evaluation of Ostrich Production Using Fuzzy Approach in Sistan

This study aimed to economic evaluation of ostrich production in Sistan region by the use fuzzy conception in five platforms including (1 bird, 30 birds, 50 birds, 100 birds and 200 birds). The result showed that amount of benefit cost for 30, 50, 100 and 200 was 0.20, 0.26, 0.30, 0.31 and present value was 105, 549, 1460, 2927 million rials. According to the results obtained from present value...

متن کامل

the use of appropriate madm model for ranking the vendors of mci equipments using fuzzy approach

abstract nowadays, the science of decision making has been paid to more attention due to the complexity of the problems of suppliers selection. as known, one of the efficient tools in economic and human resources development is the extension of communication networks in developing countries. so, the proper selection of suppliers of tc equipments is of concern very much. in this study, a ...

15 صفحه اول

Economic Appraisal of Investment Projects in Solar Energy under Uncertainty via Fuzzy Real Option Approach (Case Study: a 2-MW Photovoltaic Plant in South of Isfahan, Iran)

Investment in renewable energies especially solar energies is encountered with numerous uncertainties considering the increased dynamism in economic and financial conditions and makes investment in this field irreversible to a large extent, paying attention to modern methods of economic appraisal of such investments is highly important. A framework is provided in the current study in order to e...

متن کامل

fuzzy simulation in uncertain circumstances

this article proposes composition of fuzzy sets theory with discrete-event simulation and puts it into application in order to model uncertain activity duration in simulating a real-world system. the purpose of this paper is to assess the usefulness of fuzzy simulation for modeling uncertain activity duration, especially when insufficient or no sample data is available. in this research, fuzzy ...

متن کامل

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023